Oscars 2025 predictions for next week's nominations

Before next week's announcement, BBC Culture's film critics forecast the probable contenders – from a musical about a transgender crime boss to an architectural epic starring Adrien Brody.

Best Picture

Nicholas Barber: Who would have thought? Despite the writers' and actors' strikes bringing Hollywood to a standstill for much of 2023, this year has proven remarkable for best picture contenders. The top favorite is The Brutalist, Brady Corbet's intelligent story of an immigrant architect navigating mid-20th Century America. Conclave should also be considered: this Vatican-set thriller brilliantly merges serious themes with captivating entertainment. Emilia Pérez has become a hit this awards season, which is quite impressive for a multilingual musical about a transgender crime boss's lawyer. The grandeur and spectacle (and box-office success) of Wicked and Dune: Part Two should secure their places as well. If the Academy fills all 10 potential slots in this category, there's room for Anora, the Palme d'Or winner at the Cannes Film Festival; The Substance, one of the year's most talked-about films; Nickel Boys, a fresh take on the period drama; and A Complete Unknown, as biopics are always popular. The final spot could go to one of my two favorite films of the year: Jesse Eisenberg's A Real Pain and Payal Kapadia's All We Imagine as Light, which would surely have been nominated in the best international feature film category if India's Film Federation hadn't chosen another film.

Caryn James: The top contenders for the big award have been set for months, and they're a wonderfully diverse group. There's the ambitious epic The Brutalist, the outrageous transgender musical Emilia Pérez, the touching comedy about a sex worker Anora, and the gripping thriller Conclave. The rest are just fillers now that there are up to 10 films in this category. Wicked will make it in, serving the purpose of the expanded number of nominations: acknowledging popular box office hits. I'm hoping for Jesse Eisenberg's sensitive, funny A Real Pain, whose nomination should follow the pattern of Past Lives last year – boosting a fresh indie film and filmmaker. I also suspect A Complete Unknown will sneak in to fill the inevitable biopic slot, and maybe The Substance due to Demi Moore's standout performance and the film's boldness. Unlike last year's powerhouse Oppenheimer, the variety of films this time makes the best picture race more unpredictable and exciting than usual.

Best Director

Caryn James: The best picture frontrunners will also receive nominations for their directors, not because those categories always align (they don't), but because these filmmakers are so inventive and commanding: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, Sean Baker for Anora, Edward Berger for Conclave, and Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, all of whom would be first-time nominees in this category. That leaves just one slot for the rest. The Directors Guild nominated those four plus the seasoned James Mangold for A Complete Unknown, but I think Oscar voters might opt for something less conventional and a newer name, possibly Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, which speaks directly to Hollywood's obsession with appearances. A nomination for her would also prevent an all-male lineup. They will still face an #Oscarssowhite issue, and RaMell Ross should be included for his visionary Nickel Boys, but unfortunately, the film hasn't gained much traction outside of critics' groups. 

Nicholas Barber: Last year, Christopher Nolan was the clear leader in the best director Oscar race. This year, there's no clear frontrunner yet. However, Brady Corbet crafted a monumental international drama for under $10m (£8.2m), so he should be nominated for The Brutalist. Jacques Audiard manages to span various genres, tones, and locations in Emilia Pérez. Jon M Chu might be recognized for a different kind of musical, the vibrant and dazzling Wicked. Sean Baker deserves a nomination for orchestrating the chaos in Anora, a film that is wildly farcical yet always credible. But it would be unfortunate if we ended up with an all-male shortlist, so let's hope Coralie Fargeat is acknowledged for her work on The Substance, with its striking style, intense performances, and jaw-dropping finale.

Best Actor

Caryn James: Adrien Brody is almost certain to be nominated, having risen to the top of the list after his Golden Globe win and Screen Actors Guild nomination for his role as an immigrant Holocaust survivor in The Brutalist. His competitors likely include Timothée Chalamet, who vividly transforms into Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, and Ralph Fiennes, whose subtly powerful performance as a cardinal questioning his faith in the Catholic Church anchors Conclave. Daniel Craig is also expected to be nominated for his groundbreaking role in Queer as a gay American writer inspired by William S. Burroughs. SAG, a large group with members often overlapping with Oscar voters, nominated these four and Colman Domingo for Sing Sing. Despite Domingo's strong performance, the film's limited release makes its Oscar chances slim, so there could be a surprise, but for now, he's the most likely choice for the final spot.

Nicholas Barber: Adrien Brody leads the best actor list. He previously won an Oscar for portraying an Eastern European Jewish composer in The Pianist in 2003, and in The Brutalist, he plays a similar character (now an architect), but excels even more. This year, no other actor has put as much into a role—or had to learn Hungarian for it. However, Timothée Chalamet learned to perform an album's worth of Bob Dylan songs for A Complete Unknown, and his Dylan impersonation is remarkably accurate, something Oscar voters typically appreciate. Ralph Fiennes shines with expertise in Conclave, and Sebastian Stan might secure a nomination for his agile performance in either The Apprentice or A Different Man (for which he won a Golden Globe). Colman Domingo's sympathetic portrayal in Sing Sing merits a place on the best actor list. If the Academy weren't so dismissive of horror films, Hugh Grant's nerdy yet jovial depiction of psychotic malice in Heretic would surely be recognized.

Best Actress

Nicholas Barber: My top pick for the best actress Oscar is Mikey Madison, an energetic whirlwind in Anora. Previously little-known before starring in Sean Baker's lively comedy-drama, she created a vividly memorable character and dominates the screen from start to finish. However, with such a strong year for female lead performances, Madison's nomination isn't assured. Fernanda Torres, having won a Golden Globe for her role as the relentless matriarch in Walter Salles's politically charged Brazilian drama, I'm Still Here, is now an Oscar contender. Demi Moore also won a Golden Globe for The Substance, and her comeback story might be irresistible to the Academy. Similarly, Pamela Anderson could be nominated for her return role in The Last Showgirl, having received nods at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild awards. Who else remains? My bet would be on Cynthia Erivo or Nicole Kidman, who portrayed powerful yet vulnerable women in Wicked and Babygirl, respectively.

Caryn James: While I'm not predicting a win, Demi Moore is more likely than ever to be nominated for The Substance, following her win and Oscar-ready acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, along with a SAG nomination. Other likely nominees include Mikey Madison for her breakthrough role in Anora, Karla Sofia Gascón, who could become the first transgender nominee in the category, for Emilia Pérez, and probably Cynthia Erivo for her role in Wicked. The final spot is uncertain and might go to Nicole Kidman for Babygirl, if only because Oscar voters seem to favor her. Fernanda Torres delivers a stirring performance in I'm Still Here and Marianne Jean-Baptiste is uncompromising in Mike Leigh's Hard Truths, and both should be nominated instead of Erivo and Kidman, but that's unlikely. While it would be wonderful to see Pamela Anderson make it into the category for The Last Showgirl, as she did with a SAG nomination, that recognition likely came too late to build the momentum she needed.

Best Supporting Actor

Nicholas Barber: This is a fitting moment for my annual complaint about actors being placed in categories where they don't belong. Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin are co-leads in A Real Pain, and if they were of different genders, they'd both be considered "leading" actors. However, the decision-makers have labeled Culkin as the film's supporting actor, and he's certain to be nominated for his lively, Golden Globe-winning performance. Edward Norton exudes maturity and gentleness as Bob Dylan's mentor, Pete Seeger, in A Complete Unknown. Yura Borisov, portraying a kind-hearted Russian enforcer, adds new layers of humanity to the latter half of Anora. The consistently underrated Guy Pearce delivers a nuanced and commanding performance in The Brutalist, and it's high time he received an Oscar nomination. Lastly, Denzel Washington should be recognized for his fabulously cool presence in Gladiator II. It's hard to recall when a supporting actor so completely stole the film from the supposed star.

Caryn James: It would be surprising if Kieran Culkin doesn't win the Oscar for his role as Jesse Eisenberg's funny, troubled, chaotic cousin in A Real Pain. He has already received a Globe, a SAG nomination, and numerous awards from critics' groups, delivering self-deprecating, entertaining acceptance speeches each time. The other nominees will simply fill out the category, but they offer strong performances nonetheless, including Edward Norton, who channels Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown, Yura Borisov as a soft-hearted gangster in Anora, and Guy Pearce as a hard-hearted tycoon in The Brutalist. The fifth slot is difficult to predict, but I suspect Jeremy Strong will secure it for his multifaceted performance as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, who taught the dark arts of politics and media manipulation to the young Donald Trump.

Best Supporting Actress

Caryn James: Zoe Saldaña is the leading contender for her vibrant portrayal of the lawyer aiding Emilia Pérez, while Selena Gomez might secure a spot as Emilia's deceived ex-wife. Ariana Grande is likely to be nominated for her seamless role as Galinda in Wicked, a character that appears simple but could easily become unlikable with a less skilled actress. Isabella Rossellini also stands a strong chance with her compelling performance as Sister Agnes in Conclave. For the fifth position, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, and Monica Barbaro, who is lively and persuasive as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown, are contenders. However, I would lean towards Jamie Lee Curtis, a recent winner in this category, who merits another nomination for her poignant portrayal of a defiantly confident, aging cocktail waitress in The Last Showgirl, with her SAG nomination being a promising sign.

Nicholas Barber: I would be thrilled to see Monica Barbaro nominated for her role in A Complete Unknown. While Timothée Chalamet impresses with his Bob Dylan-like singing, Barbaro's operatic vibrato as Joan Baez is extraordinary. Singing is indeed a recurring theme in this category. The versatile Zoe Saldaña will be nominated for Emilia Pérez, despite being the film's lead actress. Ariana Grande showcases her exceptional vocals in Wicked and proves to be a brilliant comedian. (Though, isn't she more of a co-lead than a supporting actress?) Moving away from singers, Felicity Jones offers a powerful performance as the architect's wife in The Brutalist, and Margaret Qualley shines with star quality and clever wit as the problematic clone in The Substance.

Best Original Screenplay

Nicholas Barber: Four films have such remarkable original screenplays that excluding any would be disappointing: Sean Baker's Anora script is filled with vibrant characters and unforgettable moments; Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold's The Brutalist showcases extensive research, deep characters, and ambitious scope; Coralie Fargeat's The Substance is playful with its bold concept; and Jesse Eisenberg's brilliant A Real Pain is concise, with every scene being either hilarious, deeply moving, or both. Predicting the fifth slot is challenging, but it would be rewarding if the subtlety, grace, and warmth of Payal Kapadia's All We Imagine as Light were honored here.

Caryn James: This year's nominees in this category could serve as a masterclass in outstanding, inventive screenwriting. Jesse Eisenberg's skillful A Real Pain, Sean Baker's daring Anora, and Coralie Fargeat's audacious The Substance should all be included. These films are expertly balanced, transitioning from comedy or satire to drama. (It's no coincidence that these writers also directed the films.) Director Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold's screenplay for The Brutalist is also expected to make the list. Regarding the unpredictable fifth slot, it would be pleasing to see Mike Leigh's invigorating Hard Truths included. Although writer-director Payal Kapadia's delicate All We Imagine as Light wasn't submitted by India in the international film category, it still has a chance to be recognized here.

Best adapted screenplay

Nicholas Barber: The race for the best adapted screenplay Oscar is filled with strong contenders, from straightforward adaptations to scripts that creatively expand on a few elements from their source material. Peter Straughan's screenplay for Conclave transforms Robert Harris's novel into a sleek cinematic piece. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes's adaptation of Nickel Boys stays true to Colson Whitehead's novel while adding a unique touch. Emilia Pérez, inspired by Boris Razon's novel, takes its own creative path. Sing Sing adeptly expands a magazine article into a genuine character-driven drama. Meanwhile, A Complete Unknown by James Mangold and Jay Cocks uses Elijah Wald's book Dylan Goes Electric! as a foundation for a heartfelt tribute to Bob Dylan's early years.

Caryn James: Peter Straughan's concise adaptation of Robert Harris's Conclave is the frontrunner for the Oscar and should be accompanied by Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez. This category might be Nickel Boys' best chance for a nomination, as RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes turned Colson Whitehead's literary novel into a cinematic experience. With few other strong contenders, the category is likely to include two scripts with little chance of winning, such as Jay Cocks and James Mangold's A Complete Unknown (officially based on Dylan Goes Electric! but more about Dylan's life). In this less competitive year for adaptations, even Dana Fox and Winnie Holzman's Wicked could receive a nomination. Despite mixed feelings about splitting the Broadway musical into two films, the first part's success might bring some recognition to its writers. 

The 2025 Oscar nominations announcement takes place on Thursday 23 January.